Decision Dynamics Series: Part 1

Written By Jon Duke, Head of Aviation at Airbox Systems.

Jon is a former military air traffic controller and pilot with two decades of experience in aviation, where the OODA loop was a fundamental component of his profession. As a search and rescue pilot, Jon operated in some situations similar to those described in this series. His time as an Air Traffic Controller and instructing new pilots allowed him to see the cockpit from different perspectives, and led him to where he is now. He is passionate about helping overcome the threats faced by mission-critical aviators, by bridging the gap between life-saving technology and the people who use it.

Introducing the Decision Dynamics Series

In the chaos of a fast-moving incident, the ability to turn a flood of information into decisive action is what separates a controlled response from a reactive scramble. It is one of the most critical skills for achieving a successful outcome.

But there are ways that responders stack the odds in their favour, and one of the most powerful is a simple framework first conceived in the 1960s. 

The OODA loop describes in simple language the complete system of human decision making. And optimising each step is what helps expert responders maintain control and win the margins against an escalating crisis.

In this series of articles, we uncover the secret power granted by optimising this system. We begin by dissecting the OODA loop itself. From there, we uncover the hidden, systemic blockages that can derail even the soundest plan. Finally, we reveal the advanced operational principles that allow entire teams to move beyond a slow, sequential process and create a compounding strategic advantage that breaks the incident's chain reaction and ensures a faster, safer resolution.

How can you overcome the chaos, to make quick decisions, without missing the details that count?

In the heart of a complex, fast-moving incident, how is a flood of information turned into decisive action under pressure? It happens by following a powerful cognitive cycle known as the OODA Loop, and understanding its structure is the key to understanding high-performance thinking in a crisis.

The Four Stages of the Loop

The OODA Loop describes the four natural stages of decision-making that responders cycle through continuously:

1. Observe: The raw data intake— JESIP’s METHANE report, the updates from crews, the sights and sounds on scene. It is the answer to the question, "What are the facts?"
2. Orient: This is the most critical stage. It’s where responders make sense of the facts, synthesising new data with their training and experience to form true situational awareness. It’s the process of filtering the signal from the noise.
3. Decide: Based on their orientation, a plan is formulated. This can be a major strategic choice or a small, immediate tactical action.
4. Act: The decision is executed. Where appropriate, an incident commander gives orders and resources are deployed.

The Power of the Feedback Loop

The true power of this model lies in the fact that it is continuous. Every action creates a new set of facts to be Observed, starting the cycle anew. For example, a crew’s first report from inside a building may require a rapid re-orientation for the entire team, leading to a new Decision and subsequent Action. This cycle repeats, with each loop hopefully bringing the incident closer to resolution.

Deeper Principles of High Performance

Principle 1:

Principle 2:

How to Optimise the Loop

But there is a catch…

Simply rushing through the OODA Loop is a recipe for disaster, and is very likely to lead to inappropriate action and bad outcomes. The aim is not more thrust, it’s less drag.

Moving through the OODA Loop at the speed required to build and keep the initiative depends much more on removing friction than increasing effort:

Observing:

Create many sources of data and deliver them to the observer, rather than forcing them to go looking for them by:

• • Increasing the number of data sources and  making them accessible without effort.
  • Automating the detection of team actions, to reduce need for reporting.
  • Splitting responsibilities for observation between teams and sharing data.

Orienting:

Make the data as unambiguous and easy to understand in context as possible by:

• • Using specific language to reduce confusion and the need for confirmatory dialogue.
  • Automating systems to correlate data to reduce cognitive burden.
  • Ensuring that data has a common frame of reference to reduce confusion.

Deciding:

Aim to reduce the amount of time required to consider variables in the moment by:

• • Having pre-agreed Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs).
  • Creating decision criteria to guide thinking at critical moments.
  • Aiming for a few SOPs and criteria that are broadly applicable rather than many that are specific.

Acting:

Aim to train procedures until they are consistent and repeatable, even under failure conditions by:

• • Reducing the number of decisions that must be made ‘in the moment’.
  • Rehearsing the complex - to refine processes and learn new things.
  • Practice the simple - to increase reliability and improve speed.

Conclusion

In essence, the OODA loop is not just a theory; it is the fundamental cognitive system responders use to process the chaos of an incident. As we've laid out, the key to mastering this loop isn't about adding "thrust" or effort, which can lead to bad outcomes, but about systematically removing "drag."

By deliberately optimising each step, automating Observation, reducing ambiguity in Orientation, preparing for the Decision with SOPs, and building muscle memory for Action, a team can effectively catch up to and outpace the incident. This systematic approach is what turns a reactive scramble into a controlled response.

But as we've hinted, this optimisation is difficult because there is a powerful, invisible force working against this high-performance cycle. In our next post, we will explore that force: the Decision Iceberg.