Wildfire Season: Will History Repeat Itself?

As many of us enjoy bright spells of sunshine, the question looming over many Fire and Rescue Services is simple: what kind of wildfire season are we facing? The devastation of 2022, which stretched resources to the limit and rewrote the UK's fire danger maps, remains a potent warning. This year, early warning signs are already present, creating a familiar pattern.

An analysis of climate data from the start of this year, compared with the lead-up to the 2022 events, identifies key trends and vulnerabilities.

Winter Warnings

For the UK, the combination of a wet winter and a fast spring dry-out creates a dangerous paradox. The rain fuels intense, rapid growth of moorland vegetation like heather and purple moor grass. This new growth dries then becomes an abundant fuel source - spread across approximately 4,000 square miles of the UK.

Q1 2022: The Perfect Storm

• Wet & Warm: The start of 2022 was characterised by a milder and, in many regions, notably wetter-than-average winter. While this saturation delayed early-season fires, it led to unchecked growth of surface vegetation. By the end of March, the fuel load across the UK’s moors, heaths, and grasslands was beginning to dry.

• The Dry-Out Begins: As spring progressed, a switch flipped. March and April saw a rapid transition to drier, sunnier conditions. The highly productive biomass, fuelled by the winter rains, was primed to dry out with the first sustained spell of high pressure. 

Q1 2026: The Mirror?

Initial analysis of Q1 2026 indicates a weather pattern that matches many conditions of 2022.

• Wet & Saturated: Many parts of the UK have experienced another exceptionally wet start to the year, which we covered in a previous blog. Met Office provisional data for February 2026 shows that England recorded 170% of its average monthly rainfall, leaving ground saturation levels high. This will have once again accelerated the growth of 'fine fuels' on our moors and heaths.
• The March Signal: March provided much of the UK with drier, warmer weather. If this persists throughout April, we will face a dangerous situation: plentiful heather growth, created by the preceding wet weather, being rapidly seasoned just as human activity in the countryside increases.

The first wildfire warning of 2026 has already been issued for March 20th-21st in Scotland - the first alert of 2022 was issued just one day later on the 22nd.  

The Early Signals 

The events of 2022 demonstrated what happens when multiple high-risk factors align. A significant fuel load, a spring dry-out, and then, the unprecedented 40°C heatwave. The result was a 315% increase in wildfires across England and Wales, and 14 major incidents declared in just two days. 

Outlook and Preparation:

The 2026 wildfire season has the potential to be, at the very least, highly challenging. The first condition - heavy fuel growth due to a wet Winter - has been met. Our focus now turns to how quickly that fuel will dry.

Data is not just a warning signal, it can also be part of the response. Data-driven decision-making is at the core of successfully tackling fast-moving incidents. Visibility of all the moving parts can transform wildfire response:

• Seamless Interoperability: When wildfires become major incidents, firefighters from other regions work side-by-side with, or provide relief for, the ‘locals’. Using standardised equipment that allows reinforcements from other services to seamlessly slot into the operation is essential.

• Live Situation Feeds: Making the right decisions during the incident requires a clear picture of the situation. Engines, bowsers, water sources and hose lines on a single screen. Crew locations and how long firefighters spend at the ‘hot zone’ become important safety information for commanders.
• Incident Review: When wildfires are declared a major incident, a clear audit of the response helps to quickly establish how the wildfire developed and spread. Recording this in real time saves leadership valuable hours once the flames have been extinguished.

The 2026 wildfire season is on the horizon - the early warning signs are clear. By understanding the climate context and using a data-centric approach to preparation Fire Chiefs can anticipate, rather than just react, to the challenges ahead.